More Like A Majority

Will the budget pass in Parliament? Or will we be headed to another election?

Now we have the answer - and it’s exactly what Project Confederation predicted from the start.

The budget passed by the narrowest of margins, 170 to 168.

And the only reason it passed is simple: no one in Ottawa wanted to trigger another election just months after the last one.

Two NDP MPs abstained from the vote, while Green Party Leader Elizabeth May ultimately sided with the government.

Two Conservative MPs - one of whom had already announced they will be resigning, and another who was recovering from surgery - also missed the vote.

But their votes would not have ultimately made the difference, as a 170-170 vote would have triggered a tie-breaking vote in favour of the budget by the Liberal Speaker.

In the end, the budget passed not because the budget was compelling, but because the alternative was a winter election no one was prepared to fight.

This “minority” government continues to function like a majority in everything but name.

The budget’s survival wasn’t about confidence in the plan itself - it was about political calculations and an unwillingness among some MPs to risk another election, even when the country is heading in the wrong direction.

And this budget takes us further down that wrong path.

It dramatically expands federal spending and adds tens of billions in new commitments.

Ottawa is broadening its reach into infrastructure, housing, immigration, energy policy, and national industrial priorities.

It’s increasing the power of federal agencies responsible for approving large projects, setting new national directions on development, and shaping trade policy.

That’s why this close vote matters.

If a budget this large and this ambitious can pass with such limited support, propped up by abstentions and a single supporting vote from outside the governing party, then we cannot rely on Parliament alone to protect our interests.

The current system tends to consolidate power at the centre, especially when minority governments behave like majority ones.

Project Confederation was created for exactly this moment.

We work to ensure that provincial autonomy doesn’t depend on the mood of Parliament, the internal politics of federal parties, or the last-minute decisions of MPs in other provinces.

The only way to protect Canadians long-term is through structural reforms that rebalance the federation: clearer jurisdictional boundaries, greater provincial control, and mechanisms that prevent any federal government - Liberal or otherwise - from unilaterally steering national policy in ways that harm provincial interests.

This budget vote shows how fragile the checks on federal power really are.

With the right mixture of political pressure, fear of an election, and strategic abstentions, a minority government can still push through sweeping national plans.

That means we need to be focused on pushing back against that overreach and planning long-term reforms that protect Canadians, no matter who is in power in Ottawa.

But to continue this work - researching reforms, publishing proposals, mobilizing supporters, and pushing provincial leaders to act - we rely on grassroots supporters like you.

If you believe we need stronger protections against federal overreach, please chip in today and help us ramp up this work: